2025 Miami University Survey of Ohio Voters Opinions about the Midwest

As part of the 2025-2026 John W. Altman Program in the Humanities students at Miami University surveyed Ohioans to understand their views about the Midwest. This survey of 1,129 Ohioans reveals that the Midwest is still understood as a place where hard working individuals depend on themselves with 54% of respondents believing that a “Strong work ethic” is very representative of the Midwest and 40% believing that “Self-reliance” is very representative. We also found that although 62% of respondents said their local community was very accepting or accepting of racial minorities, 46% said the same of the Midwest as a whole. In addition, a plurality of Ohioans (40%), do not believe that the Midwest is better off than it was 25 years ago.

The survey was supported by the Menard Family Center for Democracy, and completed as part of the POL 307: Public Opinion Lab. All survey questions (except for demographics) were written by students in POL 307 in consultation with students participating in the Geoffrion Family Fellowship. Additional analysis will be released after students complete it. Full details including all toplines and survey methodology are below. The margin of error is $$5%.

What is the Midwest?

One of the overarching question of our program this year is what is the Midwest? The inclusion of states in the Midwest is often a point of debate, as each individual has their own map of the Midwest. To better understand what Ohioans think of the Midwest, we asked them to select the states that they personally believe are in the Midwest. Perhaps not surprisingly, Ohioans broadly agree that they are in the Midwest, with 83% identifying Ohio as part of the Midwest (although fewer, 74% identify themselves as Midwesterners). The next most commonly identified Midwestern state is Illinois (80%) and then Indiana (78%).

Figure 1 shows the percentage of people who said a state was in the Midwest for the remaining states. What appears from this map are different “tiers” of Midwesterness. The top tier includes Ohio, Illinois and Indiana, which almost everyone agrees on as in the Midwest. Stepping down from this we add Iowa, and Missouri which a super majority (2/3s) agree as being in the Midwest. Finally, the last tier includes includes Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota (which a bare majority of Ohioans agrees as being in the Midwest).

map = Plot.plot({
  projection: "albers-usa",
  color: {
    label: "In the Midwest?",
    type: "linear",
    scheme: "Plasma",
    legend: true, 
    percent: true
  },
  marks: [
    Plot.geo(state_map, {
      fill: (d) =>  d.properties.percent,
      stroke: "black"
    }), 
    Plot.text(state_map, 
      Plot.centroid({text: (d) =>  d.properties.percent < .01 ? "<1%" : d3.format(".0%")(d.properties.percent), 
                    fill: "currentColor", 
                    stroke: "white", 
                    fontSize: 16,
                    filter: (d) => d.properties.percent
                    }
        )
      )
    ]
})

Figure 1: Which states are in the Midwest?

DOM.download(
  pngBlob(map),
  "map_midwest.png",
  "Save as PNG"
)

What are the values of the Midwest?

Regions are not just defined by geography, but also by shared culture or values. In order to understand the culture of the Midwest, participants were asked “How representative of the Midwest do you believe each of the following characteristics are? Diversity, Honesty, Hospitality, Self-reliance and Strong work ethic.” A majority (54%) of respondents selected “Strong work ethic” as very representative and additional 37% selected it as somewhat representative. Self-reliance was selected as very representative by 40% of participants and somewhat representative by 51% of participants. This fits with the historical understanding of the Midwest, which has been defined as a place fill with hard working individuals who often just want to be left alone.

Standing out from the other values, diversity ranked low in representativeness. Only 24% selected diversity as very representative while 25% selected not very representative and 3% selected not as all. Again, this reflects broad cultural understands of the Midwest which is often portrayed as homogenous and white.

values_plot = Plot.plot({
  x: {label: null, percent: true},
  y: {label: null},
  marginLeft: 100,
  marginTop: 20,
  color: {legend: true, scheme: "Plasma", domain: ["Skipped", "Not at all representative", "Not very representative",  "Somewhat representative", "Very representative"], reverse: true},
  marks: [
    Plot.barX(transpose(values), {
      y: "sub",
      x: "coef",
      fill: "Response",
      title: (d) =>
              `Value: ${d.sub} \n Response: ${d.Response} \n Percent: ${d3.format(".0%")(d.coef)}`,
      tip: true
    }), 
    Plot.textX(transpose(values), Plot.stackX({
      y: "sub",
      x: "coef",
      fill: "currentColor", 
      stroke: "white", 
      fontSize: 14,
      text: (d) => d.coef < 0.05 ? "" : d3.format(".0%")(d.coef)
    })
    
    )
  
  ]
})

Figure 2: Which values are representative of the Midwest?

DOM.download(
  pngBlob(values_plot),
  "values_midwest.png",
  "Save as PNG"
)

Local and Regional Acceptance

Because of these perceptions of the Midwest as racially homogenous, we also asked participants how accepting they believed the Midwest was of racial minorities. As an acknowledgement that the Midwest does contain plenty of diversity, we also asked participants how accepting their current community was as well. Here we find a difference in perception.

When asked about their local community, 62% said that their community was either very accepting or accepting of racial minorities. In contrast, when asked about the Midwest as a whole only 46% said it was very accepting or accepting, while 37% said the Midwest was only somewhat accepting.

acceptance = Plot.plot({
  x: {label: null, percent: true},
  y: {label: null},
  marginLeft: 100,
  marginTop: 20,
  color: {legend: true, scheme: "Plasma", domain: ["Skipped", "Very accepting", "Accepting",  "Somewhat accepting", "Not very accepting", "Not accepting at all"], reverse: true},
  marks: [
    Plot.barX(transpose(diversity), {
      y: "sub",
      x: "coef",
      fill: "Response",
      title: (d) =>
              `Location: ${d.sub} \n Response: ${d.Response} \n Percent: ${d3.format(".0%")(d.coef)}`,
      tip: true
    }), 
    Plot.textX(transpose(diversity), Plot.stackX({
      y: "sub",
      x: "coef",
      fill: "currentColor", 
      stroke: "white", 
      fontSize: 14,
      text: (d) => d.coef < 0.05 ? "" : d3.format(".0%")(d.coef)
    })
    
    )
  
  ]
})

Figure 3: How accepting of racial minorities?

DOM.download(
  pngBlob(acceptance),
  "acceptance_midwest.png",
  "Save as PNG"
)

Direction of the Midwest

Finally, voters were asked if they agree or disagree with the statement that “The Midwest is better off today than it was 25 years ago.” Given narratives about Midwest decline and the offshoring of manufacturing we expected that a large majority of individuals would disagree with this statement. In contrast, although we found that a plurality disagreed (40%) with statement, believing that that Midwest is not better off today than it was 25 years ago, there is a sizable minority (26%) that did agree with it. Although there is plenty of pessimism about the Midwest, it is important to not forget that there are plenty of individuals who see improvement over the last few decades.

dir_plot = Plot.plot({
  y: {label: null, percent: true, grid: true},
  x: {label: null,  domain: ["Strongly agree",
          "Agree",
          "Neither agree nor disagree",
          "Disagree",
          "Strongly disagree", "Not sure", "Skipped"]},
  color: {legend: false, scheme: "Plasma", reverse: true, domain: ["Strongly agree",
          "Agree",
          "Neither agree nor disagree",
          "Disagree",
          "Strongly disagree", "Not sure", "Skipped"]},
  marks: [
    Plot.barY(transpose(direction), {
      y: "coef",
      x: "Response",
      fill: "Response",
      title: (d) =>
              `Response: ${d.Response} \n Percent: ${d3.format(".0%")(d.coef)}`,
      tip: true
    }),
    Plot.axisX({label: null, lineWidth: 8, marginBottom: 40})
  
  ]
})

Figure 4: The Midwest is better off today than it was 25 years ago.

DOM.download(
  pngBlob(dir_plot),
  "direction_midwest.png",
  "Save as PNG"
)

Complete Toplines

Table 1: Survey Toplines

	Response	Estimate
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: Minnesota	On	50%
	Off	50%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: North Dakota	On	23%
	Off	76%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: South Dakota	On	27%
	Off	73%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: Iowa	On	70%
	Off	29%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: Wisconsin	On	59%
	Off	40%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: Michigan	On	52%
	Off	47%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: Montana	On	2%
	Off	98%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: Wyoming	On	6%
	Off	93%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: Colorado	On	7%
	Off	93%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: Nebraska	On	38%
	Off	61%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: Kansas	On	38%
	Off	62%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: Oklahoma	On	10%
	Off	90%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: Arkansas	On	13%
	Off	87%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: Missouri	On	67%
	Off	33%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: Illinois	On	80%
	Off	20%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: Indiana	On	78%
	Off	21%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: Ohio	On	83%
	Off	17%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: Pennsylvania	On	6%
	Off	93%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: West Virginia	On	13%
	Off	87%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: Kentucky	On	37%
	Off	63%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: Tennessee	On	12%
	Off	88%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: North Carolina	On	<1%
	Off	100%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: Virginia	On	1%
	Off	99%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: New York	On	1%
	Off	99%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: Idaho	On	1%
	Off	99%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: New Mexico	On	1%
	Off	99%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: Utah	On	2%
	Off	98%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: Arizona	On	1%
	Off	99%
	Skipped	<1%
Based on your personal opinion, select the states you consider to be in the “Midwest” using the map below.: South Carolina	On	<1%
	Off	100%
	Skipped	<1%
How representative of the Midwest do you believe each of the following characteristics are?: Strong work ethic	Very representative	54%
	Somewhat representative	37%
	Not very representative	5%
	Not at all representative	1%
	Skipped	3%
How representative of the Midwest do you believe each of the following characteristics are?: Hospitality	Very representative	38%
	Somewhat representative	51%
	Not very representative	6%
	Not at all representative	1%
	Skipped	4%
How representative of the Midwest do you believe each of the following characteristics are?: Self-reliance	Very representative	40%
	Somewhat representative	51%
	Not very representative	5%
	Not at all representative	1%
	Skipped	3%
How representative of the Midwest do you believe each of the following characteristics are?: Diversity	Very representative	24%
	Somewhat representative	45%
	Not very representative	25%
	Not at all representative	3%
	Skipped	4%
How representative of the Midwest do you believe each of the following characteristics are?: Honesty	Very representative	28%
	Somewhat representative	56%
	Not very representative	10%
	Not at all representative	2%
	Skipped	4%
In your opinion, how accepting do you feel the Midwest, as a whole, is of racial minorities?	Very accepting	18%
	Accepting	28%
	Somewhat accepting	37%
	Not very accepting	14%
	Not accepting at all	1%
	Skipped	3%
In your opinion, how accepting do you feel the community you currently live in is of racial minorities?	Very accepting	28%
	Accepting	34%
	Somewhat accepting	21%
	Not very accepting	8%
	Not accepting at all	3%
	Skipped	7%
How much do you agree or disagree with the following statement: "The Midwest is better off today than it was 25 years ago."	Strongly agree	8%
	Agree	18%
	Neither agree nor disagree	26%
	Disagree	24%
	Strongly disagree	16%
	Not sure	5%
	Skipped	2%
How long is the drive to the closest chain supermarket (Walmart, Kroger, Giant Eagle, Aldi, etc.) to you?	0-10 minutes	68%
	11-20 minutes	22%
	21-30 minutes	6%
	31-45 minutes	1%
	Skipped	3%
For each of the following types of infrastructure investments identify how great of a difference an increase in investment in that infrastructure would make in your community: Roads and bridges	A great deal of difference	25%
	A big difference	33%
	A small difference	31%
	No difference	6%
	Skipped	4%
For each of the following types of infrastructure investments identify how great of a difference an increase in investment in that infrastructure would make in your community: Energy Services	A great deal of difference	26%
	A big difference	37%
	A small difference	28%
	No difference	6%
	Skipped	4%
For each of the following types of infrastructure investments identify how great of a difference an increase in investment in that infrastructure would make in your community: Broadband/Internet access	A great deal of difference	26%
	A big difference	28%
	A small difference	31%
	No difference	11%
	Skipped	4%
For each of the following types of infrastructure investments identify how great of a difference an increase in investment in that infrastructure would make in your community: Public transit	A great deal of difference	25%
	A big difference	25%
	A small difference	27%
	No difference	19%
	Skipped	5%
For each of the following types of infrastructure investments identify how great of a difference an increase in investment in that infrastructure would make in your community: Waste Management	A great deal of difference	14%
	A big difference	28%
	A small difference	37%
	No difference	17%
	Skipped	4%
Do you consider yourself to be a "Midwesterner"?	Yes	74%
	No	16%
	Not sure	7%
	Skipped	3%
How many years have you lived in Ohio?	Less than 1	<1%
	1-5 years	5%
	6-15 years	6%
	16-30 years	18%
	30-50 years	38%
	50+ years	29%
	Skipped	3%
How would you describe the place where you currently live?	City	22%
	Suburb	38%
	Town	13%
	Rural Area	22%
	Other	1%
	Skipped	4%
Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a...?	Democrat	31%
	Republican	39%
	Independent	19%
	Other	5%
	Not Sure	3%
	Skipped	4%
Who did you vote for in the 2024 Presidential election?	Donald Trump (Republican)	49%
	Kamala Harris (Democrat)	43%
	Someone else	1%
	Couldn't vote	1%
	Didn't vote	2%
	Don't remember	<1%
	Skipped	3%
What is the highest level of education you have completed?	Some high school or less	1%
	High school diploma or GED	16%
	Some college, but no degree	31%
	Associates or technical degree	25%
	Bachelor’s degree	14%
	Graduate or professional degree (MA, MS, MBA, PhD, JD, MD, DDS etc.)	10%
	Prefer not to say	<1%
	Skipped	3%
Which race(s) and ethnicity(ies) or you consider yourself to be?: White or Caucasian (non-Hispanic)	Yes	19%
	No	81%
Which race(s) and ethnicity(ies) or you consider yourself to be?: Hispanic or Latino	Yes	97%
	No	3%
Which race(s) and ethnicity(ies) or you consider yourself to be?: Black or African American	Yes	93%
	No	7%
Which race(s) and ethnicity(ies) or you consider yourself to be?: American Indian/Native American or Alaska Native	Yes	98%
	No	2%
Which race(s) and ethnicity(ies) or you consider yourself to be?: Asian	Yes	99%
	No	1%
Which race(s) and ethnicity(ies) or you consider yourself to be?: Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander	Yes	100%
	No	<1%
Which race(s) and ethnicity(ies) or you consider yourself to be?: Other	Yes	96%
	No	4%
Which race(s) and ethnicity(ies) or you consider yourself to be?: Prefer not to say	Yes	96%
	No	4%
What is your gender?	Man	50%
	Woman	45%
	Non-binary / third gender	<1%
	Other	<1%
	Skipped	4%
What was your total household income before taxes during the past 12 months?	Less than $25,000	7%
	$25,000-$49,999	17%
	$50,000-$74,999	17%
	$75,000-$99,999	15%
	$100,000-$149,999	19%
	$150,000 or more	15%
	Prefer not to say	6%
	Skipped	4%

AAPOR Disclosure

Data is from a survey of 1129 registered voters in Ohio fielded from October 28-30, 2025. The sample frame was purchased from L2 Data and was a random sample of registered voters with cell phones. The survey was sponsored by the Menard Family Center for Democracy. The full survey language can be found here.

Participants were recruited using text messages and then completed the survey online. The sample was rake weighted to Ohio registered voters using education (3 categories), race (white/non-white) by sex, age (3 categories), recalled vote for the 2024 election, party registration, and vote history. The targets for the last two variables were taken from L2 voter file data while the remaining variables (except for recalled vote choice) were from the CPS November 2024 Voter Supplement. For recalled vote choice we assumed that 5% of votes in the 2024 election would fit into the “Other/Did not vote” category.

The tables below show the results for all registered voters and then the subset of voters. The overall margin of error is \(\pm\) 5 percentage points. Note this only captures the error from sampling and does not account for errors as a result of question wording, frame over or undercoverage, etc.

state_map = {
  const states = topojson.feature(us, us.objects.states); 
  const map = new Map(transpose(plot_data).map((d) => [d.fips, +d.value]));
  states.features.forEach((g) => {
    g.properties.percent = map.get(g.id);
  });
  return states.features;
}

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}


pngBlob = (async (pngOut) => {
  const canvas = await image(pngOut);
  return new Promise(res => canvas.toBlob(res));   
})


htmlToImage = import("https://cdn.skypack.dev/html-to-image@1.11.1?min")



import {us} from "@observablehq/us-county-datasets"